Spatial diffusion in the Belgian fertility transition. Estimating neighbourhood effects using event-history analysis at the macro level

The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of spatial diffusion on fertility behaviour changes in Belgium during the First Demographic Transition at a fine-scale geographic level. The analyses lie in a new data series from 1886 to 1913 providing yearly fertility indicators at the municipality level. Firstly, this data series will be used in a preliminary analysis of the evolution of fertility behaviour in order to produce a first overview of spatial patterns, diffusion effects and barriers to diffusion. This preliminary analysis is expected to reveal local particularities of fertility changes that are undetectable at higher geographic levels. Secondly, the yearly data series will be used in event-history models in order to estimate neighbourhood effects among municipalities. These models will test whether the presence of contiguous municipalities j that experienced a fertility change at time t−1 has an effect on the probability, for a municipality i, of experiencing the same change at time t. These models will also attempt to estimate the barrier effect of the Belgian linguistic border.