The Strengthening Impact of Earnings on the Transition to Parenthood: Evidence from Norway 1994-2009

This study describes how the impact of earnings on transition to parenthood changes in the period 1994-2009 in Norway. By comparing changes the earnings-fertility relationship across gender, I cast light on whether the mechanisms linking earnings and the transition to parenthood have become gender neutral over time. Discrete-time hazard regressions are estimated on highly accurate data from the Norwegian population registers, covering all men and women at risk of having a registered first birth in the period 1994-2009. Results show a monotonously positive and substantial impact of annual earnings on first birth rate for men throughout the period. The impact of earnings on the transition to parenthood strengthens over time for both men and women, but more so for women. At the end of the period of study, the earnings-first birth relationship is similar across gender. The results show that despite generous welfare schemes and fairly stable economic conditions, earnings have become increasingly important for the transition to parenthood. The similarity across gender indicates that the mechanisms linking earnings and fertility in Norway have become gender neutral.