The D R Congo conflict (1998-2004): Assessing excess deaths based on war and non-war scenarios

To assess excess deaths linked to the 1998-2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the International Rescue Committee conducted a series of five surveys over a seven years period (2000–2007). IRC estimated excess deaths of 5.4 million between 1998 and 2007. Using an alternative method this study combines four different data sources – 1984 DRC Population Census; 1995 and 2001 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey – to assess excess population loss. Indirect techniques are used to derive estimates and cohort component projections conducted for factual and counter-factual scenarios using varying assumptions to estimate excess population loss. This study’s excess population loss is estimated at: 2.4 million for a closed population; 1.7 million when migration data in incorporated. We also find that the choice of mortality baseline determines the level of excess population loss. Mortality is exceptionally high in the DRC regardless of baseline or assumptions used. Further works are on-going to refine assumptions and assess competing causes of mortality as well as the extent of uncertainty linked to both this study’s model and components of population change.