Fertility Dynamics in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: Accounting for Individual and Group Level Effects

Much has been said the ''exceptionally'' high Palestinian fertility. Even though the fertility transition is well under way it is clear that the classical theory of demographic transition cannot explain the continued strong demand for children in the modern yet conflicting context of Gaza or the differences with the West Bank. Several hypotheses have been brought up to explain the factors surrounding the ever-high Palestinian fertility. This paper thus aims to better understand the mechanisms of fertility change in this region. The factors behind their fertility dynamics are analyzed with a multilevel hierarchical linear model (HLM) to disentangle the individual and group level effects that come into play. We argue that the minority group status, the permanent state of belligerence, and its consequences on a contextual level play a role in explaining the high fertility. The fertility dynamics should resemble to that of the Palestinians living in Israel.