Projecting Cardiovascular Deaths and Hospitalisation in India

Though the cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of deaths in India, there are limited studies that provide estimates on burden of cardiovascular diseases. The aim of this paper is to project the age and sex pattern of deaths and hospitalisation due to cardiovascular diseases in India and its major regions. The data have been drawn from multiple sources; Special Survey on Cause of Death, 2001-03, Sample Registration System 2004-2010, Expert Committee Projection on Population 2001 and Census of India 2011. The projections are carried out, for 2004-21, under baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenario. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the estimates of cardiovascular deaths. Under the baseline scenario the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases was estimated at 1.4 million in 2004, 1.6 million in 2010, 1.8 million in 2016 and 2.1 million in 2021. The total hospitalisation was estimated as 6.7 million in 2004, 7.7 million in 2010, 9.5 million in 2016 and 10.9 million by 2021. While, deaths were relatively higher among older adults, hospitalisation was concentrated among prime working age group. The regional estimates suggest that the majority of the deaths and hospitalisation were in the southern and eastern region of India.