A Probabilistic Approach of male out-migration from Eastern Uttar Pradesh in India

Population movement and its impact on other social, economic and demographic characteristics have been increasing attention of social scientists and demographers in recent years and a large number of studies on migration have been conducted. The majority of studies used macro level approach by operating on highly aggregate data for countries, district, states and the nation as a whole. In recent years the study of migration at the micro-level is useful and it is governed by human grouping on probabilistic and stochastic approach. Households play a very important role in decision of an individual to move or not to move from the household. The main objective of the paper is to develop a probability model for the total number of migrants from a household. The suitability of the model is tested through observer data. A primary source of data has been used for this study. The area of the study is Varanasi district in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. Result suggests that the proposed model under consideration is a better approximation to observed distribution of rural out migration at the micro level. Thus it may be a useful tool in calculating the various probabilities connected with the out-migration from the household.