Below replacement fertility in Kerala, India : Lessons learnt for low and middle income countries

Kerala state in India has already reached below-replacement fertility level in the 1990s while the rest of India was experiencing high or mid-level fertility. With this backdrop, the objectives of this paper are two-fold; (a) to explore the plausible factors associated with the fertility transition in Kerala and its socioeconomic and health policy implications and (b) to identify lessons to be learnt from Kerala experience for fertility transition in middle or low income countries. The underlying factors that led to the fertility transition were explored using bi-variate and multi-variate techniques. An enhanced level of human development achieved, without a threshold level of economic growth, was likely to be the main contributor. Population momentum and ‘demographic dividends’ appear strong. Population density will take a staggering level of 1,101 persons per sq km in 2026 and its consequences are discussed. The tempo of population-ageing is also very high.

What are the replicable factors of Kerala experience in the midst of high fertility ? What are the lessons to be learnt from this experience relevant for low and middle income countries? These questions are dealt with in detail in this paper.