The cultural dynamics of contraceptive use in contemporary rural Poland: an evolutionary approach

The diffusion of contraceptive use, as a proxy for the spread of low fertility norms, has long been of interest to researchers wishing to understand the fundamental drivers of fertility decline. However, few studies have incorporated community level influences with work on social networks and individual factors. I examine the multilevel determinants of contraceptive use in 22 villages undergoing late-stage demographic transition in rural southern Poland. I test individual and community level hypotheses about the diffusion of contraceptive use to examine the extent to which it is individually strategic and/or culturally transmitted between kin and social networks. I find evidence consistent with Cultural Evolutionary hypotheses that individuals imitate the behaviour of easily observable social models, and that contraceptive uptake may exhibit positive frequency-dependence (aka conformity). The results support hypotheses about social influence in demography. The findings are also consistent with theoretical modelling showing that even when conformity to group norms is relatively high, average education in a group can increase the rates of transmission of low fertility norms, and thereby the rate of contraceptive uptake. However some methods of contraception are more sensitive to traditional norms than others.