PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF AFRICAN FERTILITY TRANSITION - A 3-MODEL ANALYSIS OF 23 AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Social scientists and demographers are proffering explanations for the emerging pattern of fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the traditional Bongaarts model, its extended version and Stover’s refinement, we try to offer a more nuanced explanation of African fertility transitions. We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys of 23 sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the patterns and changes in fertility and proximate determinants within and between the countries. Particularly we compared the impact of proximate determinants on fertility at both pre-1994 and post-1994 fertility regimes. It is shown that in pre-1994 period, the traditional Bongaarts model was more useful to explaining fertility variations than in the post-1994 era .Results also show that in East and Southern Africa, Stover’s version of proximate determinant model is more useful to explaining fertility changes than the original Bongaarts model. There are also various differentials identified. Theoretical, programme and policy implications of these findings are discussed.