Lengthening birth intervals and their impact on the fertility transition in rural and urban East Africa

There has been concern about the progress of fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: in many parts of the continent family sizes continue to be large. However, examining fertility rates by rural and urban area reveals that the decline is well underway in some populations. This research will investigate whether there is a relationship between low fertility and birth interval length in urban areas of East Africa. Birth spacing practices which served to delay births were an important element of fertility dynamics in many traditional communities. Current research shows that birth spacing continues be an important feature of fertility, and in a number of countries intervals have lengthened to five years or more.
Regression models were used to analyse birth interval length by rural and urban area in four East African countries. Early analysis shows that, overall, intervals are longest and lengthening most rapidly in urban areas. Further analysis of these changes will give an understanding of the potential influence that lengthening birth intervals will have upon the fertility transition: the predominance of tempo changes may explain the slow nature of the decline. However, if intervals continue to increase it will be impossible for populations to return to high fertility levels.