The Flight of Future Generations: Migration Intentions after the 2008 Economic Crisis in the Post-Socialist Countries

Our aim is to explore the factors related to emigration in 28 post-communist countries and shed light on how economic circumstances following the crisis influence plans to emigrate. Data are drawn from The Life in Transition survey II, a rich dataset that includes migration intentions and information about individuals’ current economic and family situation as well as recent experiences. The survey was conducted jointly by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank in late 2010. The dependent variable in our paper is intention to move abroad. The multivariate analysis is modeled as a multi-level model for binary responses. This approach makes it possible to explore between-country variance in migration intentions. those who report that the economic crisis has had a significant impact on the household are 37% more likely to express the intention to migrate within 12 months after the survey as compared to those who claim to be unaffected by the crisis. Both upwardly mobile and downwardly mobile are more likely (18% and 28%, respectively) to express the intention to migrate as compared to those who stayed in the same status relative to the period four years before the survey. Individuals of reproductive age and those who live separately from their spouse are most likely to intend to migrate.