Forecast of educational attainment structure of the population of the Czech Republic to the year 2050

The population forecast by sex, age, region and educational attainment has never been done in the Czech Republic before the year 2011. Human capital becomes a crucial factor for economic growth in developed countries. Its forecast is a key for understanding possible future development and it can be marked as an input of all economic and social development scenarios. Authors try to forecast the level of the human capital represented by the highest educational attainment what is currently the only way how it can be measured. However, authors are aware that this approach does not exactly correspond with actual knowledge, skills and abilities of individuals.
The multi-state models (Markov chains) were applied for the construction of the forecast. It was made through the transition intensities applied to the current state in the cohort perspective (the transition probabilities between states were determined for every single age in every single year). The educational structure of the Czech population known from the 2001 Census was used as the initial structure.
In accordance to the results of the forecast it could be expected that the share of low-educated people will decrease very significantly in the Czech Republic and the share of people with tertiary education should increase rapidly to 2050.