Fertility Transition, Convergence and Low Fertility Clubs, and Factors Associated with Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in India

This study investigates the fertility transition and convergence, and emerging patterns. Change-Point analyses indicate that the fertility in India observed multiple critical change-points. Considerable variation observed across the states in terms of initiation of transition and critical change points. Beta and Sigma convergence analyses indicate divergence in fertility rates across the states until 2000, divergence replaced with convergence for recent period. Convergence and low fertility clubs such as south Indian club, higher socioeconomic groups and non-slum urban areas are identified by introducing regional and socioeconomic group dummies into conditional Barro-Regression model. The factors associated with low and lowest-low fertility in India are identified by regression analyses. The higher education of women, greater mean age at first birth, breastfeed above 24 months, using any method of contraception, unmet need for limiting are emerged as a critical factors of low fertility while along with higher education, age at first birth above 30 years, couple desire to limit child bearing (after having only 1 living child), sex preference for both men and women become critical predictors of the women for lowest low fertility.