Does cohort size effect migration patterns? New findings for the age of mass migration based on age-specific patterns.

In this paper we examine age-specific net emigration patterns during the so called “age of mass migration” between 1850 and the beginning of World War 1 for six European countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway). Earlier studies on causes of this population movement phenomena only analyzed crude migration flows, since age-specific data was simply not available. Using residual methods like the average survival ratio method, it is possible to estimate age-specific profiles and to use them for further investigations. By doing so, we observe that age-specific migration patterns varied considerably during the age of mass migration. We show with decomposition methods that indirect demographic effects, attributable to changes in the age structure of the population (e.g. increases of the share of the prime migration age groups), are negligible. However, direct demographic effects, such as relative cohort size, on age-specific migration propensities are relevant. These can be demonstrated with correlations and regression analysis that also take into account other non-demographic determinants.