Impact of HIV on estimates of child mortality derived using the summary birth history (CEB/CS) method

This study investigates the extent of bias in the estimates of infant and under-five mortality derived from the Brass children ever born children surviving (CEB/CS) method as a result of HIV/AIDS. The bias is estimated by comparing the infant and under-five mortality derived from the CEB/CS method with direct estimates from the full birth history data from recent DHS data. The estimates from the full birth history data have been corrected for bias due to HIV/AIDS using the method used by IGME.

IMRs and U5MRs derived from data from women aged 25-39 were underestimated by up to 15% in the six countries studied. Estimates of bias in data derived from women aged 20-24 differed between countries. The results from these younger women could be affected by differences between the indirect and direct methods of estimation. In two of the countries, estimates of overall bias of more than 30% were observed. The bulk of the overall bias is due to the effect of HIV on the survival of mothers and their children. The choice of model life table does not introduce much bias, especially in estimates of under-five mortality where the absolute bias in most countries was less than 3%.