Estimating the number of AIDS deaths in South Africa

Cause of death data for the period 1997-2009 have been used to estimate the number of mis-attributed AIDS deaths based on the distinct trend in the age pattern of cause specific rates. After adjusting for under-registration of deaths, the relationship between the increase in mortality and the lagged HIV prevalence was used to estimate the mortality prior to the impact of HIV. The excess mortality was considered to be mis-attributed AIDS deaths and accounted for 92% of the estimated AIDS deaths. The analysis indicates a steady increase in the estimated number of AIDS deaths with a peak of 246 000 in 2006, followed by a sustained decrease that accompanied the extensive roll-out of ARTs in South Africa and prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes.