Half a Century of Fertility Change in South Africa

This study examines the complex interactions of social transformation and childbearing patterns that result in the empirical patterns of fertility during the five decades from the 1960s to 2011. South Africa is widely expected to experience a below-replacement level of fertility before other countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa. However, the trend of fertility especially in the past decade erodes confidence in the imminence of a replacement level of fertility. From the onset of a universal decline during the 1960s, the national total fertility rate has declined only slowly with no decisive downward trend since the beginning of the third millennium. Data from the 2011 census, recent birth registration statistics and information from other sources do not suggest the prospects of a rapid decline in national fertility in the short term. Estimates of recent total fertility rate since 2007 range narrowly between 2.7 and 2.8. We argue that in South Africa and other societies with no clear evidence of a sharp decline in recent fertility, the prevailing trend could be an outcome of reproductive strategies that respond to practical challenges of improving the material well-being of women and couples in the society.