Poster session on Demographic methods and data

Kenya, like most developing countries lack reliable vital registration. Knowledge of maternal mortality at a national level depends entirely on DHS surveys that provide information on the number of sisters who died during pregnancy, childbirth and postpartum. While such information remains valuable to assess levels and trends of maternal mortality, incompleteness of siblings’ history data and under-reporting of maternal deaths can seriously distort the estimated result. DHS data quality in estimating levels and trends of Adult mortality in Kenya using siblings’ histories has been documented elsewhere (see Masquelier, 2010). However, little work has been done to study the quality of DHS data in estimating levels and trends of maternal mortality in Kenya.

This paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the evolution of DHS data quality in estimating levels and trends of maternal mortality in Kenya using the last three KDHS (1998, 2003, 2008-09). We focus on three major aspects: (1) completeness of data for the event; (2) under-reporting and misclassification of the events; (3) the plausibility of the patterns of maternal mortality indicators. We plan to combine the three surveys in order to estimate maternal mortality indicators (Maternal mortality rates, ratios and lifetime risk) between 1990 and 2008.

Reliable and valid data on sexual behaviour and socio-demographic characteristics among socially marginalised populations, such as female sex workers (FSWs) remain challenging to collect. Particularly little is known about FSWs working in rural areas. This paper uses the example of a comparative mixed methods study of rural and urban FSWs in Indonesia, to (1) describe how qualitative and quantitative methods can be combined to overcome research problems accentuated in studies of sexual behaviour within the context of transactional sex, and (2) to discuss the strengths, limitations and implications for practice of such an approach. Mixed methods in this study include a survey of rural and urban FSWs (n=310), in-depth interviews (n=11), key informant interviews (n=5) and ethnographic assessments. The sample of FSWs was drawn up using a novel combination of purposive sampling techniques. Findings show how the use of mixed methods can enable the collection of context-specific behavioural and socio-demographic data and can serve as a tool for internal validation. In addition, failure to include the hardest to reach and often most vulnerable FSW sub-groups, such as those working in rural settings, can be avoided through the use of combined purposive sampling techniques.

Although substantial research has been made in identifying and quantifying determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include these determinants in an explicit migration model. In Norway, gross immigration is currently 1.5 percent of total population, and immigration is the main driver of population change. Statistics Norway is projecting immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables included are income level, unemployment and population size in Norway and the sending countries, previous immigration from the sending countries to Norway, and dummies for policy changes or special events. Data from 1970-2011 are used to estimate the effect of the different variables for three country groups: Western countries, Eastern EU-countries and the rest of the world. Projections of exogenous variables are partly drawn from international sources and partly from national Norwegian forecasts. For the income variables, three different paths are specified leading to three different forecasts for immigration until 2100. These forecasts suggest high immigration at least for another decade. However, the alternatives indicate high uncertainty. Even if we condition on a specific path of explanatory variables, prediction intervals are wide.

Demographic censuses usually contain information about a graded education system, i.e. age and grade declarations. This information can be used to estimate a series of indicators, useful for diagnostics and prognostics of the educational system. One of the principal goals of this paper is to provide a new demographic technique to better understand the population trends in terms of levels of schooling, in a country or region. A detailed scrutiny of the derived indicators proposed can be a powerful tool for policy makers. Our technique follows in the tradition of formal demographic methodologies used in analyzing and projecting population, such as Life Tables. Thus, one could study the probable social consequences of the implementation of any educational policies related to promotion and retention practices, over the medium and long runs. The methodological procedures were applied to the Latin American Countries, although it could be replicated or adapted to other developing countries or regions that have the usual information of grades concluded by age.
Key Words: Demographic analysis, trends and forecast of educational indicators, regional inequalities

The interaction of migration with fertility and mortality is key for demographic dynamics at subnational and local levels. Despite this, standard measures of mortality and reproduction treat migration only as a nuisance to be removed, without ever assessing the extent to which processes are affected by migration. Indicators of replacement that incorporate the effect of migration like the Birth Replacement Ratio, have the limitation of not being defined at the age-specific level. We estimate new cohort and period measures of mortality and reproduction that include the interaction with migration for the set of Spanish provinces in the period 1858-2010. The new measures only require vital registration data classified by age, and provide age-specific estimates that incorporate the effects of migration. When migration is low, the measures can be regarded as indirect estimates of mortality and reproduction that do not require population denominators. When migration is high, they should be regarded as the results of the interaction of demographic processes in that particular population. Given the large provincial contrasts in fertility, mortality and migration, it is possible to characterize the role of migration patterns in the vital events registered in the provinces over a period that covers most of demographic transition.

This paper contributes to the analysis of the relation between child malnutrition and morbidity by providing a comprehensive assessment of the mutual impacts of the two phenomena. We investigate the synergistic relationship between malnutrition and morbidity among infants in Nairobi's poor urban settlements using data from 3,459 children enrolled in an ongoing Maternal and Child Health Longitudinal study. For our analysis we use a joint dynamic framework to account for persistence in a given nutritional or morbidity status, and also for dynamic cross-effects between the two phenomena. We address the econometric challenges associated to our analytical framework using a bivariate random effects dynamic probit model, a bivariate extension of Wooldridge approach. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, we propose an analytical framework that examines both dynamics of malnutrition and morbidity and analyze the contamination process between them, which permits to investigate the interactions existing across the two problems. Second, we contribute to shed light on a very important empirical question: does malnutrition interact identically with all common forms of morbidity, or is its effects stronger for some types of morbidity than others? Answer to this question may have important policy implications.

Collecting data on sexual behavior based on recall has always been a concern. In this paper we compared data gathered from face to face interviews with daily information provided using the mobile phones through the Experience Sampling Method (ESM). With information from a purposive sample of 90 couples in Metro Cebu where one of the spouses/partners is a participant of the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey, we determined whether the reported coital frequency differed according to the manner the data were gathered. We used the endline survey to capture the seven-day recall information and the daily responses of the past seven days (to mobile phones) to compare the consistencies of the responses. Results revealed that with respect to coital frequency, data from mobile phones were higher than face-to-face interviews with respect to sex age group, marital status, work status, education and household assets. There were differences also observed between couples with husbands/males reporting higher frequencies than their wives/partners irrespective of the method of data collection. The findings highlight the importance of data collection methods in gathering sensitive information in less developed societies where open discussions of sensitive issues like sexual activities remain taboo.

Traditional demographic methods correct adult mortality by assuming a uniform distribution of the errors in between censuses. We propose the use of quality control charts to detect which years should be corrected at a larger scale than others within inter-census periods. This methodology proves new in the area and highly improves the current available demographic methods, both for all age groups, including the oldest ages usually hard to correct with traditional methods. We used Colombian official death records from 1950 to 2010, as recorded from the Latin American Human Mortality Database (www.lamortalidad.org), and found that this methodology will enhance current available demographic methods.

The average size, number and distribution by size of private households in Turkey are projected based on the official population projection and an extension of the headship rates method. Our results imply the plausibility of a quadrupled number of single-person households along with almost a doubling of the overall number of households in 2000-2025. Appreciating these changes is essential for evaluating housing needs, socio-economic developments and environmental issues in Turkey. Under current consumption patterns, change in households’ composition is potentially more important for economic growth prospects than the population growth.

It is fairly well established that empirical mortality data sets are often characterized by a number of limitations and deficiencies, the most common of which is a pronounced tendency in age declaration to “round-off” to certain preferred digits. Another typical limitation of such data is that they are often provided only in aggregated forms or/and they suffer by incompleteness. Special problems related to the efficiency and stability of death rates also arise when data refer to limited population of small areas, where the age-specific death counts, as related to few events, are small. In such a case the age-specific death rates are inefficient estimators of the corresponding death probabilities as a result of highest impact of randomness. However, for many purposes in both demographic analysis and actuarial practice, there is a need for both reliable and analytical estimation of the age-specific mortality pattern. In this work these problems are discussed, and a technique for providing accurate and analytical estimates of the age-specific mortality pattern of small areas is proposed. For evaluation purposes this technique is applied to empirical data of a variety of European populations.