Recent fertility change: quantum and tempo effects

After converging towards replacement level, fertility in the Maghreb is now following contrasting trends. In Tunisia, the total fertility rate (TFR) has levelled off and remained stable at 2.1 children per woman since 1999. In Algeria, after dipping to 2.2 in the early 2000s, fertility has increased steadily, reaching almost 2.9 in 2010. In Morocco and Libya, meanwhile, where fertility was still above replacement in 2000, the TFR has continued its rapid decline, down to 2.2 and 2.5 children per woman, respectively. Not only has fertility remained above replacement level in all of these countries, but Algeria has even seen a sharp upturn in the last decade, As in the past for fertility decline, the change in age at marriage is now the key factor behind the stabilization at 2 children per woman in Tunisia and in the increase to almost 3 in Algeria. Has the two-child model lost its appeal in the latter country or changes in marriage tempo matters only? All available data from vital statistics, censuses and surveys will be used to try answering the question.