Achieving Intended Family Size in Japan

This study aims to provide social, demographic and economic characteristics of Japanese married couples who achieved their early expected family size during the first decade of the 21st century. Using the latest panel data of nearly 30,000 men and women, the study provides detailed profiles of married couples who achieved their initial levels of expected family size based on ten years of observation. By taking advantages of longitudinal data, we examines the effects of important but often neglected factors such as gender role attitudes, childrearing experiences, spousal share of household chores and economic contributions, and economic stabilities of the household. The survey design also allows us to examine how adjustment is made between spouses when their fertility intentions are mismatched. To supplement our findings, we also conduct another set of the analysis on the changes in couples’ expected family size using the same dataset. This supplemented analysis sheds light on the evolution of the fertility intentions and aims to examine the individual characteristics associated with declining intended family size. By integrating the two results from the panel data analysis, this study seeks the link between subjective and behavioral aspects of low fertility in the 21st century Japan.