Applying and Extending the Lee-Carter Model to Forecast Age-Specific Migration

In this paper, we explore the application of the Lee-Carter type models to forecast migration. The Lee-Carter model and its variants are considered to be a flexible approach to modelling age-specific mortality and fertility. However, its usefulness for forecasting migration is unknown. For application, we forecast age-specific immigration counts and emigration rates for the United Kingdom. To overcome irregularities exhibited in the sample-based migration data, we include smoothing in the model. Various specifications are presented to show the differences in predicted levels and measures of uncertainty.