Below Replacement Fertility in Brazil: from low to lowest low levels?

The first decade of this century represented the entry of Brazil in the group of below replacement fertility countries, about 40 years after the onset of the fertility transition in the country. The country's average does not reflect the differentials in reproductive behavior of the Brazilian women. Considering the example of the extremes educational levels (women less than 4 years versus women higher than 10 years of schooling), one can observe that although the differentials decreases over time, they are still considerable. The main objective of this paper is to present fertility scenarios for 2015, 2020 and 2025 based on the projection of the educational level of women. Projecting schooling one may ask: what will happen to fertility if women adopt the reproductive behavior observed in 2010? And if the differentials among different schooling levels women decrease? Will Brazil reach lowest low levels?