Can Bihar reach CPR level of 50 per cent by 2016: A projection of using Bongaarts model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
As per the technical committee projections and target set by government the TFR will reach a level of 2.7-2.9 by 2016. However, there is no clear guidance on the level of CPR and appropriate methods mix to achieve that TFR.
Under this backdrop the specific objectives of the paper is to identify
1. targeted level of CPR and method mix suitable for achieving a targeted TFR
2. appropriate method mix that government of Bihar should focus
DATA AND METHOD
The data for the projection is used from the NFHS and AHS. The assumptions related to different population characteristics “Technical group on projection, GoI, 2006.
FINDINGS
It is found that the CPR level of 50 per cent, with a method mix close to Bihar urban and focused on IUD is best for Bihar. The target for Fst and IUD assigned for the state is unrealistic. The HMIS data of Bihar is subject to over reporting of acceptors.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The family planning program in Bihar should be focused on targeting 5 lakhs of IUD and female sterilization per year, considering the infrastructural constraints.