Census-linked study on ethnic fertility differentials in Lithuania

Fertility transformations observed since the early 1990s and their determinants have been rather thoroughly investigated in Lithuania. There are fairly numerous national and international studies devoted to this topic, mainly based on survey data. However, none of these studies looks into the effect of ethnicity on fertility. It is, to a large extent, caused by limitations of sample survey data. Lithuania is relatively homogeneous by its ethnic composition: Lithuanians constitute more than 80 percent of the total population and the shares of other ethnicities are rather small. This study uses a unique census-linked dataset, based on all records from the 2001 census and all birth records for the period between April 6, 2001 and December 31, 2002. The preliminary findings suggest that ethnicity is an important gradient of fertility in Lithuania. Lithuanians have higher fertility than other ethnic groups, especially Russians. The lowest TFR found in the Russian ethnic group is mainly explained by lower rates of second births. Interestingly, the highest mean age at second birth is also found in the Russian subpopulation. Fertility of Lithuanians remains significantly higher even after controlling for compositional differences by education, urban-rural residence, marital status, and economic activity status.