The Changing Marriage Patterns and Their Effects on Fertility in Taiwan

As other East Asian societies, Taiwan has confronted a remarkable decline in the number of births during the last decades. The more recent decline is largely attributed to a significant increase in the educational attainment of women, along with improved employment opportunities and higher wages for women in this region. It has been argued that both nuptiality and marital fertility have contributed to the recent fertility decline in Taiwan, and their relative importance actually varied over time. For younger cohorts, the changing preference for ideal partner/spouse has emerged as a priority concern in the decision-making process of union formation. In addition, the declining fertility rate is also due to perceived difficulty in raising children, particularly by working mothers. Using data from Taiwan’s Vital Statistics and Household Registration Records between 1976 and 2010, firstly, we will reconstruct completed fertility rates for female birth cohorts born before 1960 and model the CFRs for younger cohorts. Next, we will illustrate the extent to which changes in first marriage and childbearing behavior after marriage have contributed independently to the decline in fertility since 1970s. Based on these results, we will explain contemporary differences in cohort fertility and discuss the possibility of recuperation.