Climate change and health: a comparative analysis among regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Patterns of mortality and morbidity can be affected by climate changes: floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires affect the incidence of waterborne diseases; exposure to high concentrations of gaseous pollutants is associated with respiratory diseases; frosts, storms, droughts and floods threaten food production which can increase the rates of malnutrition. Effect of climate change can be more accentuated among individuals living in poor socioeconomic conditions. Poverty increases vulnerability of individuals to extreme temperatures and precipitation. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of climate change on population health in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The analysis is performed by regions of the state, which is very heterogeneous regarding its socioeconomic and epidemiological characteristics. The disparities are observed at both regional and individual levels. Preliminary findings show a significant effect of climate change on dengue and hospitalization rates for infectious and respiratory diseases. Increases in temperature between 2010 and 2040 will contribute to increase the prevalence of diseases. The increases in the morbidity rates will be higher for dengue and in the following regions: northwest, north and Minas Gerais triangle. North and northwest of Minas Gerais are among the poorest regions of the state.