Correlation Analysis of Population Structure, Labor Market and Effect of Economic Crisis in the Czech Republic

Unemployment is very important macroeconomic indicator. It reacts to changes of other indicators in economy. An analysis of interaction among employment and unemployment and GDP, investments and inflation is introduced in the article with a special attention to population ageing. The objective is to present relation of population structure reflecting ageing process and labor market and to prove or reject hypothesis that unemployment rate, employment rate and participation rate are related to GDP growth and their reaction is delayed by one or two quarters. In the analysis it is possible to monitor effects of economic crisis as well.
The paper presents several correlation analyses applied on both annually and quarterly distributed data in the Czech Republic. Correlation was found between proportion of seniors in the population and employment rate and participation rate. Unemployment, on the other hand, is not correlated with population structure; rather it depends on macroeconomic indicators. Relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth rate was proved for data started in Q1/2007 and for delay of two and three quarters.

CO-AUTHORS: Jitka Langhamrova, Jana Langhamrova, Ondrej Simpach, Petra Dotlacilova