DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA: An evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using ‘change-point analysis’

Hitherto lack of a robust methodological application in demographic transition analysis is the rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances ‘Change-Point analyzer’ as a new methodological tool for assessment of the progress and changes in population and health indicators. A long-term assessment of ‘change-point analyses’ of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, LEB, TFR and Population size in India show multiple points of critical changes. The defining feature of ‘change-point analyzer’ is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. Measured change points of demographic and health trends are crucial for understanding the true trajectories of trends and patterns and progress in demographic transition. This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population vis-a-vis population policy shifts in India. Evolutionary interpretation of the long-run trends helps in, not only discussing past and current trends, but provides a number of insights for future directions, which helps in evolution and monitoring of population policies.