Demographic Transition Theory: if Its Premises Hold? (The Case of East-Southern Asian Coutnries

Most of demographic theoretical explanations could be divided along the lines of two major premises of social science: first, the modernization theory and, second, institutional approach. According to the first explanation, demographic transitions are staged, irreversible, universal across space and time, progressive, lengthy, Europeanized and homogenizing. Major variants of demographic transition theories (first and second) fit these very premises. In opposite to it, the institutional approach emphasizes the major impact of the local (parochial) specifics in defining the demographic developments including fertility dynamics.
Demographic developments in the world provide a rich evidence for testing these largely competing explanations. Demographic developments in the countries of Eastern Asia serve as a good testing ground. The uniqueness of these countries is that they combine rapid modernization with the lag in changing of the gender roles. That leads to the pattern of fertility – one of the lowest in the modern world. The paper elaborates on developments in the region, provides alternative explanations of the demographic developments in the region and concludes on the possible contribution of the developments’ analysis to the validity of both major theoretical explanations.