The Demography of the Kingdom of Siam: Global-Colonial Influences during the Long 19th Century

There is a shortage of research into the institutions governing fertility in pre-transitional settings, particularly in Third World populations during the colonial era. The common view that everywhere fertility was high before demographic transition is largely without empirical support. This paper focuses on the pre-transition Kingdom of Siam which though independent was surrounded by colonies and imbedded in an era of global influences. This paper aims to understand the demographic system regulating population change in the pre-transitional (largely 19th century) Kingdom of Siam, and then extend the analysis in the twentieth century and precipitous fertility decline. The authors combine extensive archival research with modeling of the 19th century demography using an inverse projection algorithm (POPULATE) and demographic assumptions inferred from a close reading of the historical record. Two scenarios are presented, one constructed around the classic demographic transition assumptions, including high fertility, and the other around sharply different assumptions (including a moderate level of fertility) better incorporating the institutions and global/colonial influences prevailing at the time. Prominent in this narrative are corvee and warfare-based labor policies before about 1850, and then opening to commercial export agric