Effect of children composition on the sex of next birth in the context of low fertility in rural China

Previous studies of China’s exceptionally high sex ratio at birth have emphasized the prevailing national and regional fertility policy as well as the gendered composition of children ever born. Little attention, meanwhile, has been paid to the effect of fertility intentions of the sex of next birth for a household. In the paper, we use the data from China’s 2001 national family planning and reproductive health and hierarchical models to study how macro factors (mainly fertility policy) and micro factors (mainly fertility intention and children composition) affect the sex of next birth. We find that fertility policy exerts a significant effect on the sex of next, but this effect is intertwined by children composition. For those having had a son (or sons), the policy exerts no effect, but for those with only daughters, the effect is quite significant. Crucially, however, fertility intention as independent from fertility policy has a significant effect on the sex of next birth.