Estimating age specific mortality: a new model life table system with flexible standard mortality schedules

In this paper, we propose a new model life table system that is parsimonious and adequately captures the range of age patterns of mortality observed in real populations and yield high predictive validity, not just measured by summary indices such as life expectancy at birth, but more importantly by age specific mortality rates. It provides satisfactory estimates of age specific mortality for countries with high levels of mortality, especially those plagued by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Finally, this new model could generate age specific mortality with a plausible time trend.