Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates

Previous work on the demographic explanation for recent rises in the fertility rates in Europe concluded that the main driver was declining postponement, leading to higher peak rates (Bongaarts and Sobotka, 2012). Using data from 15 countries in the Human Fertility Database, we found that this explanation was insufficient. We then investigated other possible explanations of the rise. An increase in intensity (i.e. rise in peak rates) was seen in some countries, but not all. Increased variability in age at first birth (which adds to the width of the fertility curve) has been increasing across all the countries studied, although this trend was already underway in the 1990s. Two parallel trends have led to a widening of the fertility curve: a slowing in the decline of first births to young (pre-modal age) mothers and a significant growth in older (post-modal age) entry into motherhood. The turning point from declining first birth fertility rates to increase can be explained by the interplay of ongoing increases in the width of the fertility curve (more variable timing) together with a stabilisation or, in some cases, a modest increase, in the peak rate (intensity). This explanation is valid for both Eastern and Western European countries.