Factors Related to Internal Migration in Brazil: how does a conditional cash-transfer program contribute to this phenomenon?

The main objective of this paper is to analyze how changes in the economic and social conditions influence the likelihood of migrating in Brazil, focusing on the crucial role of a conditional cash-transfer program (Bolsa Família Program), given its many social implications, especially on the decline of income inequality. We can point out other important social changes occurring in Brazil in the last decade: the growth of women's participation in the labor market, which influences the economic decisions of households, the growth of average schooling of the population, which generates social returns, and increasing the number of female-headed households, which has consequences on poverty, etc. It is assumed that all these changes can contribute to changes in individual decisions, including the decision to migrate. The methodology applies a hierarchical logit model that includes individual characteristics on the first level and municipal characteristics on the second, assuming that the probability of moving varies between different locations due to aggregate determinants. Expected results are: i) a decrease in non-return migration, ii) the growth of return migration, and (iii) the results are most significant in municipalities in the Northeast region, which is the poorest and would tend to channel most of the benefits.