Fertility forecasting using a top-bottom approach: an application for Brazil

Fertility forecasting in the case of Brazil constitutes a great challenge due to the regional heterogeneity of its fertility transition, making the application of the known projection techniques difficult. Thus, the paper presents a methodology that allows to forecast the pattern and level of fertility by defining scenarios for a small geographical unit based on the fertility behavior of the total population. In this case, Brazilian Federate States (BFS) and the whole country as a unit. We use National Household Surveys, Demographic Censuses (2000 and 2010) and vital statistics where data are reliable. We assume that the trend of reproductive behavior outlined for the country as a whole is a transition process to be experienced by all BFS, differing only by the timing it occurs. From this assumption it is possible to identify –using the more recent BFS’ TFR as a first parameter– the timing of its corresponding fertility transition. Then, using interpolation procedures we replicate the national transition experienced by each ASFR. The robustness of this technique is given by the coincidence of the sum of births generated by the FBS’s ASFR and the total births generated by the ASFR defined for the whole country.