Fertility transition in Brazil: a cohort analysis of anticipation, postponement and recuperation

In this paper we aim to study the fertility prospects of Brazil major regions based on a cohort analysis, starting from the mid-1960s. Using micro-census data from 1980 to 2010 it is reconstructed the fertility history of women in five macro regions of the country, namely: North, Northeast, South, Southeast and Midwest. Based on the complete birth history, we reconstruct cohort fertility and afterwards, we apply two methods to analyze the past, present and future trends in Brazilian fertility. First, it is applied a basic benchmark cohort model in order to understand the past and present progress of fertility. For the future prospects, we apply a New Cohort Fertility Forecasts, developed by Myrskylä et al. (2012). As results, we see that there are clear regional differences in cohort fertility. Even in cohort perspective, the levels of Brazilian cohort fertility are still below replacement levels and very concentrated at the young ages of reproductive span. However, in the more developed South and Southeast parts of the country there are signs of fertility postponement. This will result in further decline of fertility in the near future.