HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: ANALYSIS OF SURVIVORS INTO ADULTHOOD INSTEAD OF BIRTHS

The empirical research undertaken so far on the Demographic Transition has yielded ambiguous and even contradictory results. Many historical studies have obtained erroneous results due to the demographic indicators used. Instead of analyzing the secular drop of fertility exclusively measuring the birth intensity we have used the number of “children surviving into adulthood.” Also, the methodological strategy of relating the fall of fertility with mortality to the adulthood (25 years old) and not only with the one occurred during the first year of life promises to yield very good results. The vast quantity of compiled data indicates us that, traditionally, there has been an adaptation of the fertility level to the existing mortality levels, which, in reality, the start of the fall in the “number of children surviving to 25 years of age” did not take place until the universality of Welfare State policies. Our hypothesis is that the design of the Welfare State has allowed for the protection of the adult-elderly people, but has severely penalized maternity.