Household Mobility and Climate Change: New Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta of China

This study focuses on urban residents’ migration experience in the last 5 years (2007-11) and migration intentions in the next 2 years (2012-13) and their predictors in two cities – Shanghai and Nanjing – of the Yangtze River deltaic region, China. A combination of stratified sampling and simple random sampling methods and structured questionnaire surveys were used to collect primary data at the household level. Probit regression analysis methods were used to explore the factors that influence households’ past migration behaviours and future migration intentions. Specifically, possible impacts of climate/environmental change on past and future migration are measured in two ways: severity of climatic and other environmental events; and specific domains of the effects of climate/environmental change. The study demonstrates climatic/environmental factors play a significant role in influencing human mobility. The impact of climate change on migration is mediated by influencing household’s housing situation, daily expenditure, and general health status. Both past migration and intended future migration are also mediated by the age of the household head, housing types, accessibility to medical services, and target destinations of migration.