A hypothetical Demographic Scenario of Perfect Reproductive Health for Kenya

This paper estimates how far current fertility levels and rates of population growth in Kenya can be reduced purely by relying on family planning or – more precisely – the elimination of unwanted fertility. Using a similar approach to Bongaarts decomposition model, the paper projects the population, starting in 2010, using the Age Specific Fertility rates of each respective 5-year period, but adjusted by a factor. By 2050, the population implied by this scenario would be 104.1 million, compared to 96.9 million under the UNPD Medium projection and 94.6 million under the previous scenario with uniform reduction of the ASFRs. By 2070, the Perfect Reproductive Health scenario would imply a population of 168.6 million, compared to the 127.3 million projected by the UN Population Division. If maternal mortality is completely eliminated and a further reduction of 50% in child mortality is assumed, the former number rises to 176.1 million. Although the immediate attainment of perfect reproductive health would lower population growth rates in the short run, such improvements – in the absence of changes in fertility preferences - would soon exhaust their potential, resulting in long-term population growth rates in the order of 2-2.5%.