Impact of Population Aging on Antibiotic Resistance in the United States

As a result of declining birth rates, improvements in health care, and a slow down in mortality at older ages we are living in an increasingly aging world. The impact of population aging (PA) on infectious diseases, and in particular the role of antibiotic resistant pathogens, has been understudied. The elderly consume relatively large amounts of antibiotics, have higher rates of hospitalization, and many are immune-suppressed; therefore PA could have significant implications for future rates of antibiotic resistance. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of population structure (specifically the increasing share of the population that will be 65+) on antibiotic resistance in the US. Data on antibiotic resistance and consumption, hospitalization rates, and socioeconomic factors, stratified by age and geographic region, are available from 2008-10. Antibiotic resistance data will come from the Surveillance Network database, while antibiotic use data will come from IMS Health’s Xponent database. Hospitalization data is available from the National Inpatient Survey. Socioeconomic data is available from the US census bureau. We expect to find that, controlling for other factors, an increase in the proportion of the population above the age of 65 has had a strong and positive effect on antibiotic resistance.