India’s Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on Infant and Maternal Mortality by State and the Period

India is in a race to reduce Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to ‘28’ and Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to ‘109’, by 2015. Using a standardized de-composition technique and by using latest IMR/MMR data for the states and the nation during the period 1990-2010, we estimated percent net-contribution of 15 populous states and different periods in shaping India’s IMR/MMR. By fitting linear and exponential regression-curves, predicted IMRs/MMRs for India and 15 populous states, for 2015. Due to favourable contribution to maternal mortality reduction efforts from Uttar Pradesh (33%), Bihar/Jharkhand (19%) and Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (11%) - India is predicted to attain MDG-5 target by 2016, assuming the pace of decline observed in MMR during 1997-2009 continue to follow a linear-trend. However, the wait may continue until 2023-24 if MMR decline in India follows an exponential-trend. Attaining MDG-4 may take until 2023-24/2033-34, due to low acceleration in IMR decline in Bihar/Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Maximum decline in MMR during 2004-09 coincided with up-take of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) interventions. Although, India as a nation is not predicted to attain MDGs-4&5, four of its states are predicted to do so. During 1990-2010, MMR reduction efforts were more effective than IMR reduction efforts.