Markov Analysis of Contraceptive Use Behavior: Implications for the Family Planning Program in India

Introduction: Though family planning program effort continues in countries where replacement levels have not been reached, with progressive program efforts comes the question of “where” to improve further- which needs a continuous re-evaluation.
Data: This study mainly utilizes contraceptive calendar data from latest Demographic and Health Survey done in 2005-06 in India.
Methodology: The study employs an innovative application of semi-Markov modeling technique using TreeAge software 2012 to simulate and analyze the dynamics of contraceptive behavior among rural poor Indian women and offer programmatic insight. Monthly transition probabilities for the model were obtained by survival analysis techniques using Stata 10.
Results: The study model simulates contraceptive behavior of the sample population and provides comprehensive estimates. More importantly, it shows the futility of focusing on any single aspect of contraceptive behavior in achieving demographic goal. The study demonstrates the interdependence between the two by revealing the change in relative importance and magnitude of impact of various aspects of contraceptive use behavior on mean number of pregnancies in an atmosphere of constantly changing contraceptive behavior mix.