Marriage Squeeze in China: the Past, Present and Future

This study makes a comprehensive examination on the evolution and trend of male marriage squeeze in China since 1950 and employs the cohort analysis of the redundant boys born since 1983 to estimate the yearly total amount of surplus males in next 60 years. This work concludes that the phenomenon of Chinese marriage squeeze already existed since 1950, in 1960s of the twentieth Century China has experienced the most severe male marriage squeeze. Although in the twenty years between 1990 and 2010, there is no obvious marriage squeeze in China, 70% of surplus males in the future was born because of the increasingly high sex ratio at birth since 1983. These young boys and male babies will grow to be surplus males with a speed of 1.31 million each year in next 20 years. The total amount of excess males will reach up to 30 million in 2028, 5.6% of the total males at the age of married, and peak at 41.41million in 2043, 7.6% of the total males at the age of married. About in 2057 the total amount of excess males will decrease to less than 30 million which means that the total amount of excess males between 30 million and 40 million will last almost 30 years. If the sex ratio at birth in the future remains as high as that in 2012, the male marriage squeeze will be more serious.