Modeling the Linkages between Climate Change, Food Security, and Population

Developing countries face ever increasing challenges in the area of food security. Among these challenges climate change is arguably one of the most serious and wide-spread threats, since it affects all regions of the world, albeit not equally. There is growing evidence that climate change is decreasing the productivity of many crops around the world, thus increasing the risk of food shortages in developing countries where agricultural systems are low-tech and malnutrition is common. While population growth is often mentioned as a contributing factor to food changing the rate of population growth is rarely seen as a climate change adaptation policy alternative.
We developed a computer simulation model to help clarify the dynamic relationships between climate change, food security and population growth. The model links a population projection, a computable general equilibrium economic model that takes account of the effects of climate change on agriculture, and a food requirements model of the population that uses FAO formulas.
We piloted the model in Ethiopia. The model shows that, as expected, climate change will exacerbate the food security gap in Ethiopia but that lowering population growth will reduce the gap to a level that is close to that without climate change.