MODELING NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY AND POVERTY EFFECTS ON FERTILITY IN TANZANIA

This study examines whether the vicious circle theory applies in the case of Tanzania which is characterized by high population growth. According to the vicious circle theory, natural resource scarcity coupled with poverty leads to population growth via positive effects on fertility particularly in rural areas of developing countries. Population growth then leads to a further increase in natural resource scarcity, creating a “feedback loop.” This study uses micro-level data to test and control for endogeneity using a two-stage Probit model (IVPROBIT). The existing literature has largely failed to address endogeneity in the relationship between natural resource scarcity and population growth. This study is conducted using the latest cross-sectional data collected by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Tanzania. This study compares the results of single equation models (traditional approach) and IVPROBIT models. The study assumes that IVPROBIT method consistently outperforms the traditional approach. The expectation is that the results will provide support for the vicious circle argument by showing that natural resource scarcity and poverty lead to increases in fertility.