The Modified Orphanhood Method: Potentials And Limitations

The work of demographers in developing countries is limited by the fact that demographic data are either nonexistent or of too bad quality to be usable. Therefore, indirect estimation techniques based on survey data are used to estimate levels and trends of mortality and life expectancy. But also mortality researchers in developed countries are often faced with the problem of nonexistent data when they are interested in specific phenomena of mortality differentials. In order to improve the availability of information on specific mortality differentials in cases where no official data are available, Luy (2009, 2012) suggested a modified version of the orphanhood method (MOM) for indirect estimation of adult mortality from survey information on maternal and paternal survival to permit its application to populations of developed countries. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the formal demographic relationships behind the MOM and to illustrate the method’s potentials and limitations by summarizing the findings of different empirical applications. The latter will provide additional insights not only for the general usefulness of indirect estimation techniques in developed countries but also for the application of the traditional variants of the orphanhood method in developing countries.