Mortality and living standards in Asia and Europe, 1700-1900

Comparing populations in China, Japan, Italy, Belgium, and Sweden using individual level longitudinal data, for which we know population at risk and occupation, we find the mortality response to short-term economic stress is quite similar in size but have different patterns in Asia and Europe. While Europe has a clear socio-economic gradient in the response—the landless proletariat suffers but not the farmers—in Asia almost all households suffer, but not all of their members. In Asia the mortality response followed the golden rule of biology, in that members closely related to the household head are doing well, while more distant household members suffer from increasing mortality in years of high food process. We also find that the response diminished during the latter part of the nineteenth century, both in Asia and Europe, indicating improvements in living standards for the vulnerable groups. The result not only question the classical view on the immense population pressure and poverty in Asia, comparative to Europe, but also cast a new view of the demographic transition theory.