Abstract
This paper applies a multivariate method to estimate different fertility measures in Iran. The method builds on discrete-time survival models to construct multidimensional life tables of parity progression. The basic dimensions of these life tables are age, parity, and duration in parity.
The application is to Iran’s 2006 Population and Housing Census, %2 sample data. The reconstruction of birth history method is used to build birth histories of women age 15-64. The application includes both period and cohort analyses. The period analysis pertains to four 5-year periods before the census. The cohort analysis pertains to different cohorts of women age 60-64, 55-59, 50-54, 45-49, 40-44, and 35-39.
The results of the analysis show that period total fertility rate declined more than 60 percent between first (1987-91) and last (2002-06) period from 4.2 to 1.6 children per woman. The cumulative fertility rate also declined about 50 percent from 5.7 to 2.8 between cohorts of women age 60-64 and 35-39. The multivariate analysis of the TFR and its components shows a two-stage fertility transition. First, the quantum of fertility declines as women limit childbearing at higher parity transitions and older ages. Then, the tempo of fertility changes as women postpone childbearing.
The application is to Iran’s 2006 Population and Housing Census, %2 sample data. The reconstruction of birth history method is used to build birth histories of women age 15-64. The application includes both period and cohort analyses. The period analysis pertains to four 5-year periods before the census. The cohort analysis pertains to different cohorts of women age 60-64, 55-59, 50-54, 45-49, 40-44, and 35-39.
The results of the analysis show that period total fertility rate declined more than 60 percent between first (1987-91) and last (2002-06) period from 4.2 to 1.6 children per woman. The cumulative fertility rate also declined about 50 percent from 5.7 to 2.8 between cohorts of women age 60-64 and 35-39. The multivariate analysis of the TFR and its components shows a two-stage fertility transition. First, the quantum of fertility declines as women limit childbearing at higher parity transitions and older ages. Then, the tempo of fertility changes as women postpone childbearing.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
48 883
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Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
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1 000
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1