A New Approach to Indirect Estimation of Crisis Mortality Associated with Armed Conflict & Famine

Armed conflict and famine often have large-scale population
consequences. Yet the measurement of the mortality consequences of
such crises is challenging, given that accurate data at the population
level before, during and after such crises is often lacking and
classical demographic methods and model life tables are ill-suited for
such situations. In this paper, I explore the flexible,
two-dimensional mortality model recently proposed by Wilmoth et
al. (2012) and consider its adaptation to crisis mortality
situations. Specifically, I draw on high quality data from a diverse
array of demographic surveillance sites, population censuses,
longitudinal surveys, and series from the Human Mortality Database to explore the suitability of this mortality
modeling approach to famine and armed conflict situations. These
situations include a diverse array of armed conflict and famine
situations from both contemporary and historical populations. I
contrast this approach with existing approaches used by the United
Nations Population Division and the World Health Organization and
conclude with an assessment of this indirect mortality modeling
approach and outline future research directions to advance crisis
mortality estimation approaches.