The Onset of Fertility Transition in Rural West Africa: Evidence from Niakhar Demographic Surveillance System, Senegal

In Sub Saharan Africa, fertility levels in rural areas remains high. In Senegal, the number of child per women 15-49 years was 5.0 in 2010, but the gap between urban and rural context is growing (3.9 vs. 6.0). We use data from the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Senegal, where a demographic follow-up is running from several decades (since 1963 for 8 villages and 1983 for 30 villages). Data allow to document trends in fertility and to understand the process of behavioral change in a population just engaged in the first stage of transition. Results show that fertility is declining specifically at young ages from the 1960s, age at marriage is rising, men become sexually active earlier and premarital births are more frequent in the younger generations. We will test common assumptions such as the impact of education, religion and economic factors on fertility behaviors. Preliminary results show that only age at marriage and urban experience (measured by a at least one-year stay in Dakar between age 15 to 19) are significant factors. Neither education nor religion can explain variations in fertility levels. Fertility level from women living in domestic-richest household is lower, while fertility level from women living in agricultural-richest household is higher.